World's 20 Most Earthquake Prone Cities...... Kathmandu at Number 1.....

There are several major city hotspots for earthquakes. Targeted quake prone cities with poor infrastructure suffer the most devastation and loss of life.

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Some areas of the world, many of them isolated, register small tremors on an almost daily basis. Other regions get small to medium size earthquakes on a regular basis. Most closely monitored are areas where earthquakes could cripple cities, shipping and oil production, or paralyze governments.




The Most Vulnerable Cities

Cities in poor countries are most vulnerable because they often contain widespread sub-standard housing and a weak infrastructure. As people in poor countries continue to stream into shanty town areas of already densely populated cities, the potential for loss of life increases exponentially.

In 1897, a magnitude 8.3 earthquake hit Shillong in northern India. It now has 8 times as much population as then, but it is estimated that now an earthquake of the same size would cause 60 times as many deaths. Why? The replacement of single-story bamboo homes with poorly constructed multistory concrete structures, many on steep slopes, makes the population more vulnerable. (Example from a 2004 paper by Brian E. Tucker of GeoHazards.)

In more developed nations, building code improvements in earthquake prone regions have factored in preventive measures. Disaster preparedness is also better organized.

The Top 20 Ranked Cities for Number of Fatalities

The lethal potential of seismic disasters in Asia and the Americas has been ranked by nonprofit research group GeoHazards International. Variables taken into account were building frailty, fire and landslide potential, and the rescue and medical care abilities of local authorities. The results are based upon a 6.0 level quake.



Ranked in order of how badly they would fare were:

• Kathmandu, Nepal, population 1 million and growing; possible 69,000 deaths
• Istanbul, Turkey, population 10 million; possible 55,000 deaths
• Delhi, India, population 14 million; possible 38,000 deaths
• Quito, Ecuador, population 1.8 million; possible deaths 15.000; volcanoes are an even bigger threat here
• Manila, Philippines, 1.6 million population; possible 13,000 deaths
• Islamabad/Rawalpindi, Pakistan, population 1 million; possible 12,500 deaths
• San Salvador, El Savador, population, 2.2 million; 11,500 possible deaths
• Mexico City, Mexico, 2.2 million people; possible 11,500 fatalities
• Izmir, Turkey, 3.5 million people; possible 11,500 fatalities
• Jakarta, Indonesia, 18.4 million (and expected to hit 24 million by 2025); an estimated 11,000 fatalities

Due to continued growth, all of the above Third World countries could expect fatalities in the tens of thousands from a 7.0 or higher earthquake. The most modern cities at risk, all in Japan, were Tokyo, Nagoya and Kobe. Their fatalities were estimated in the hundreds.
The next layer of cities which can expect high fatalities of earthquake victims (ranking 11-20) are: Tokyo, Japan (most vulnerable First World metropolis on the list); Mumbai, India; Guayaquil, Ecuador; Bandung, Indonesia; Santiago, Chile; Tashkent, Uzbekistan; Tijuana, Mexico; Nagoya, Japan; Antofagasta, Chile, and Kobe, Japan.

Ecomonic Impact of Earthquakes

The economic impact of earthquakes also varies markedly between Third World economies and those of more developed nations, Brian Tucker reports. The economic cost of the Northridge, CA, earthquake was about 1% of the regional gross domestic product and the cost of the 1989 Loma Prieta quake was even less. By contrast, the cost of the 1972 Nicaragua earthquake was close to 40% of the country’s entire GDP and cost of the 1986 El Savador quake was 30% of its GDP.









Sources: GeoHazards International; Luck, Tiffany M., “World’s most earthquake-vulnerable cities,” Forbes Magazine’s Financial Post, May 23, 2008